August 1, 2026: The Somali government is in distress, with potential for a collapse. Somali pirates hold four ships and 67 crew. The longest-held vessel was taken on April 21 ^st . Somali pirates became more active last year. They operate boats in the Gulf of Aden, near Yemen. To make matters worse, the pirates are fighting among themselves.

The source of the piracy problem is chaos in the African nation of Somalia on the east coast of the Red Sea and the Arab nation of Yemen on the west coast. In Somalia, Al Shabab Islamic terrorists and smugglers turned pirates have been attacking shipping for over a decade. Worldwide, attacks on cargo ships and the occasional tanker remain a problem. Many ships were boarded and the crews robbed. There are also attempts to kidnap crew members and hold them for ransom.

The hostages are used to take control of the ship and move it to a different location. Pirates rarely have any knowledge or experience operating these ships. Kidnapped crew members are taken ashore and held until a ransom is paid. In December 2023, a large cargo ship was hijacked and taken to Somalia. This was the first hijacking since 2017.

As recently as 2018, piracy was still a problem off the Somali coast, just not the kind that creates headlines in the international mass media. The pirates adapted, and in 2017 there were nine pirate attacks off the Somali coast, up from two in 2016. This was notable because worldwide pirate activity hit a 22-year low, with 188 attacks in 2017, mostly far from Somalia, in places like the west coast of Africa and Southeast Asia. Those 188 attacks caused $7 billion in damage, with 80 percent of it borne by the ships and their owners. Higher insurance rates and operating costs were the major additional costs. That is an issue off Somalia, where higher insurance costs are still a problem and getting worse because of the ineffectiveness of defending warships this time.

Back in 2011, there were 327 attacks off the Somali coast. The solution was an ongoing international anti-piracy effort. But shipping companies still have to pay higher insurance rates for their ships that operate in the danger zone extending far out into the Indian Ocean. At the end of 2017, the maritime insurance companies had real reason to be worried. In November 2017, for the first time since 2014, the international anti-piracy patrol arrested six Somali pirates who were caught firing on and trying to board ships off the Somali coast.

Recently, Somalia agreed to work with Saudi Arabia to prevent the Yemeni Houthi rebels from interfering with Red Sea shipping. Last year, Islamic terrorist group Al Shabab gained control of more territory, eliminating the gains government forces had achieved since 2022. This was accompanied by an Al Shabaab effort to provide care for people living in areas under its control. Previously, Al Shabaab either ignored the civilians or interfered with the delivery of foreign aid by stealing the aid and selling it in marketplaces.

The government is reorganizing and retraining many of its army units. This is in preparation for a new campaign to force Al Shabab out of regions in central Somalia that have frequently changed hands. To do this, the government forces will receive air support from the Americans and continuing training assistance from Turkish soldiers.

The Somali military recently acquired a number of M48 and M60 tanks. The military took possession of the tanks at dockside. Turkey also has some aircraft stationed in Somalia. Previously, an American drone attack killed two senior Al Shabab technical experts. Abdullahi Osman Mohamed/Engineer Ismail, and Abdikarim Mohamed Hersi/Qoorleex. Ismail was in charge of acquiring explosives and designing bombs. Qoorleex was in charge of propaganda operations in Somalia.

Somalia hasn’t changed much during the last few years. In 2025 and 2026, the UN maintained a peacekeeping force in Somalia, with assurances that the force would remain through 2028. American drones and warplanes continue to attack Islamic terrorist operations in various areas of Somalia. Piracy returned to waters off the Somali coast. Al Shabab and militia violence continues against government officials.

Governments don’t function well in Somalia, but criminal organizations are another matter. The largest criminal organization in Somalia is al Shabaab. Given Somalia's history, that should not be a surprise. Britain and Italy administered Somalia from 1884 to 1960 and, after much effort, imposed more peace, prosperity, and unity than the region had ever known. That lasted until about two decades after independence, and then the usual bad habits began tearing Somalia apart again. The tribal/clan rivalries kept the pot boiling, even after the rise of a clean government party and Islamic Courts after 2001. This was based on installing a religious dictatorship. That backfired and gave rise to another warlord group, al-Shabaab. That caused even more Somalis to flee their homeland and led to even more problems as Somali refugees throughout Africa and worldwide misbehaved in the nations that took them in. While doing that, Somalis acquired a reputation for organized violence and criminal behavior as well as entrepreneurial success. This led to a current decision by America to deport a number of Somali refugees who were caught defrauding social service agencies of nearly $10 billion.

Despite relative peace and prosperity, by 2025 Somalia was unable to sustain that by holding national elections. Instead, most Somali factions agreed to rely on a system in which clan elders met to work out agreements. Somalia has long been a failed state and, despite over a decade of peacekeeping, massive foreign aid, and visible progress, corruption and tribalism continued to block economic progress.

Al Shabaab, a local Islamic radical group, was defeated and driven from cities and towns in 2011, but remnants survived in rural areas. Traditional clan violence, organized crime, and banditry continue to thrive. All these are ancient Somali traditions, and al Shabaab survives by reverting to that and becoming one of the major criminal organizations in some parts of the country. Extortion, smuggling, ransoms, and so on have sustained the Islamic terror group. One of the most lucrative sources of plunder is the elected Somali government, propped up by foreign aid, most of which gets stolen. Despite all that, Somalia is still a failed state that defies every attempt at nation building. The situation is worse than it appears because Somalia was never a country, but a collection of clans and tribes that fight each other constantly over economic, land, and water issues.

The country remains an economic and political mess, a black hole on the map. Not much hope in sight. There is little enthusiasm among local leaders for a national government, but all that foreign aid is welcome, as it can be accepted without risking another clan feud. Piracy has returned and so has political violence. Somali smolders as it always has, and not much has changed, though some aspects have gotten worse.

Meanwhile, al Shabaab still enjoys considerable popular support. The majority of Somalis oppose Islamic terrorism, but up to 20 percent support or tolerate groups like al Shabaab. The main reason for the support is desperation for a solution to the poverty, corruption, factionalism and chaos that make Somalia such a dangerous place to live in. Overcoming those ancient traditions is the main obstacle to peace, and there is no quick solution. Al Shabaab survives because its leaders concentrate on finances and pay its bills.

Now the peacekeepers and Western special operations forces are returning. Since East African nations suffer from disrupted trade, they are sending more of their soldiers to help reduce the mayhem and attacks on shipping emanating from Somalia

Major suppliers of foreign aid restored suspended aid programs. The United States ordered several hundred special operations and other troops to return to Somalia. American Special Forces and SEAL operators were again training and advising their Somali counterparts. American troops in Somalia also handled intelligence collection and general monitoring.

This continued from a major American special operations base in neighboring Djibouti as well as the use of American drones, also based in Djibouti, to search for Islamic terrorists and carry out airstrikes when the opportunity presents itself. After a year or so of indecision by the Americans, the Americans resumed regular air strikes against al-Shabaab and other groups interfering with aid shipments or the new Somali government. This led to several hundred drone airstrikes that killed thousands of al-Shabaab and other Islamic terrorist group members.